GOLD PRICE FORECAST: XAU/USD APPEARS WELL-SET TO BREAK $1,900, US NFP EYED

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  • Gold Price languishes near three-month low, on the way to posting fourth consecutive weekly loss.
  • Mostly upbeat United States data, challenges to sentiment underpin US Dollar strength and weigh on XAU/USD.
  • Fresh fears from China markets, Sino-American tussles join recession woes to constitute risk-off mood.
  • Hawkish Federal Reserve bets also keep Gold bears hopeful as markets braces for US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) remains on the bear’s radar despite the latest corrective bounce off the weekly low, licking its wounds near $1,911 amid early Friday morning in Asia. In doing so, the XAU/USD justifies risk aversion, as well as upbeat United States data, to underpin the bullish bias about the Gold Price. Adding strength to the Gold Price downside are the fears surrounding China.

Gold Price eyes further downside amid sour sentiment, hawkish Fed concerns

Gold Price lures sellers as mostly upbeat United States jobs data underpin hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets while China-linked headlines aren’t impressive. Additionally, the US-China tension and positioning before Friday’s US employment report also weigh on the sentiment and the XAU/USD price.

That said, China witnesses a heavy outflow of funds amid fresh fears emanating from the housing giants, including government-backed organizations. Adding strength to the downbeat mood could be the recently softer activity data from Beijing and the US-China trade war, not to forget the cautious mood as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in the dragon nation.

Elsewhere, US ADP Employment Change marked the largest one-month increase since February 2022, to 497K for June versus 228K expected and 267K prior (revised). That said, the ISM Services PMI also improved to 53.9 for the said month from 50.3 in May, versus the market expectation of 51.0. Further, the Challenges Job Cuts also slumps to 40.709K from 80.089K previous readings. However, the JOLTS Job Openings drops to 9.8M from 10.103M, compared to analysts’ estimation of 9.93M. It should be noted that the Initial Jobless Claims also rises to 248K for the week ended on June 30, versus 245K expected and 236K previous readings (revised).

It should be noted that market players expect the Fed to increase interest rates in its next policy meeting on July 26. The probability of a 25-basis-points rate hike is at 91.8%, according to data from the CME Group FedWatch tool, up slightly from 90.5% a day earlier.

Against this backdrop, Wall Street benchmarks dropped while the US Treasury bond yields refreshed a multi-day high.

Moving on, Gold traders may witness consolidation in prices ahead of the top-tier US employment data for June. Among them, the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), expected to ease to 225K from 339K, will gain major attention considering the previous day’s upbeat signals from ADP Employment Change. Should the jobs report arrive as positive, the XAU/USD can have a further downside to witness


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