EUR/USD retains a firm undertone in the mid-1.09s. Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, analyzes the pair’s outlook.

ECB sticks with hawkish outlook

President Lagarde has already said this week that higher rates are likely and that there is no prospect of being able to declare the peak in the policy cycle any time soon. She and other ECB policymakers are clearly leaving the door open to the hiking cycle extending to September.

The EUR remains well-supported on dips (minor support at 1.0940 intraday) and I remain constructive on the outlook on the basis of the EUR’s test/rejection of the 40-Day Moving Average support at 1.0845 last week. 

A move through 1.1010 (last week’s high) in the next day or so should add to near-term momentum to retest 1.1090/00.