EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a moderate decline, developing the "bearish" momentum formed the day before. The instrument is testing the level of 1.0890 for a breakdown, updating local lows from June 23. The American currency received support after yesterday's speech by the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who noted that the risks of a recession in the national economy have slightly decreased. At the same time, the official stressed that the regulator is still considering the possibility of further tightening of monetary policy, but has not yet made a decision regarding the July meeting. Currently, approximately 75.0% of analysts expect the interest rate to be raised again next month by 25 basis points, to 5.50%. In turn, the euro failed to garner support amid a speech by the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, who also spoke in favor of further tightening of monetary conditions, but noted that the region's economy still faces high inflation risks. This phase, according to the official, may drag on for some time, so there is no talk of overcoming the peak of the cost of borrowing. Additional pressure on the position of the euro on Wednesday was exerted by data from Germany: the Consumer Confidence Index from the analytical portal Gfk Group in June fell from -24.4 points to -25.4 points, while analysts had expected growth to -23.0 points.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading in different directions, holding near the local lows of June 14 and the level of 1.2620. The day before the British currency showed an active decline. Investors' attention was focused on the comments of representatives of the world's leading regulators at the ECB Forum on Central Banking. The US dollar reacted positively to the statements of the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who confirmed the regulator's determination to increase the cost of borrowing at least twice more before the end of this year. At the same time, the official noted that the final decision regarding the July meeting has not yet been made. The focus of investors today will be US statistics on the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter. The final estimate does not imply changes compared to the previous figure of 1.3%. Also during the day in the US will be published data on the dynamics of Jobless Claims and the number of Pending Home Sales in May, and in the UK the data on the dynamics of Consumer Credit will be released, which may decrease in May from 1.586 billion pounds to 1.500 billion pounds. At the same time, investors also expect an increase in the number of Mortgage Approvals in May from 48.69 thousand to 49.70 thousand.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair shows a slight increase, recovering from an active decline the day before, as a result of which local lows from June 5 were updated. The instrument is again testing the level of 0.6600 for a breakout, receiving support from macroeconomic statistics from Australia: Retail Sales in the country added 0.7% in May after zero dynamics a month earlier, while analysts expected an increase of 0.1%. The reason for the downward dynamics of the instrument yesterday was the expectation of a further increase in the cost of borrowing by the US Federal Reserve, while forecasts for a possible tightening of monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), on the contrary, decreased. In particular, investors drew attention to the slowdown in consumer inflation in Australia in May from 6.8% to 5.6%, while the market expected 6.1%. In turn, the Chair of the American regulator, Jerome Powell, speaking at the ECB Forum on Central Banking reaffirmed the intention of his department to adjust the interest rate at least twice more before the end of this year. The focus of the market today will be updated statistics from the US on the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter: the previous growth is projected at 1.3%, which should further reduce the risks of a possible recession in the national economy.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows a slight increase, testing 144.60 and updating the record highs of November. The US currency is still supported by growing expectations regarding further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. The speech of the Chair of the American regulator, Jerome Powell, once again confirmed the commitment of officials to the course for at least two more interest rate increases this year, while the risks of a possible recession in the national economy are gradually decreasing. The Bank of Japan, in turn, maintains a wait-and-see position, and can take measures to tighten monetary conditions only because of the low exchange rate of the yen. Macroeconomic statistics from Japan, published today, reflected the growth of Retail Trade in May by 1.3% after -1.2% in the previous month, while analysts expected -0.2%, and the annual figure added 5.7% after 5.1% a month earlier with a forecast of 5.4%. At the same time, Large Retailer Sales, on the contrary, slowed down from 4.8% to 3.4%, which was below market expectations at 4.0%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence Index corrected from 36.0 points to 36.2 points in June, which coincided with experts' assumptions.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows a slight decrease, developing the "bearish" trend of the current week and updating local lows from March 15. Pressure on the position of the instrument is still exerted by expectations of further tightening of monetary policy by the world's leading regulators. In particular, such intentions are reported by the heads of the European Central Bank (ECB), the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. An increase in the cost of borrowing is expected in July, although the Chair of the US Fed, Jerome Powell, for example, noted that a final decision regarding the next meeting has not yet been made. The focus of investors today will be data on consumer inflation in Germany, as well as on the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the US for the first quarter. The German Consumer Price Index is expected to rise in June from 6.1% to 6.3% YoY and from -0.1% to 0.2% MoM, while the Harmonized CPI may correct from 6.3% to 6.7%. Forecasts for American statistics assume the preservation of the previous growth dynamics of the national economy at the level of 1.3%.