Current trend

The USD/JPY pair shows a slight increase, testing 144.60 and updating the record highs of November. The US currency is still supported by growing expectations regarding further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve.

The speech of the Chair of the American regulator, Jerome Powell, once again confirmed the commitment of officials to the course for at least two more interest rate increases this year, while the risks of a possible recession in the national economy are gradually decreasing. The Bank of Japan, in turn, maintains a wait-and-see position, and can take measures to tighten monetary conditions only because of the low exchange rate of the yen.

Macroeconomic statistics from Japan, published today, reflected the growth of Retail Trade in May by 1.3% after -1.2% in the previous month, while analysts expected -0.2%, and the annual figure added 5.7% after 5.1% a month earlier with a forecast of 5.4%. At the same time, Large Retailer Sales, on the contrary, slowed down from 4.8% to 3.4%, which was below market expectations at 4.0%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence Index corrected from 36.0 points to 36.2 points in June, which coincided with experts' assumptions.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady increase. The price range expands, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD indicator is growing, while preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic approached its highs and reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating the risks of the US currency being overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 145.00, 146.00, 147.00, 148.00.

Support levels: 144.00, 143.28, 142.54, 141.50.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 145.00 with the target of 147.00. Stop-loss — 144.00. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 145.00 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 144.00 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 142.00. Stop-loss — 145.00.