The United States of America

USD is strengthening against EUR, GBP, and JPY.

New home sales in May amounted to 763.0K, higher than the forecasts of 675.0K, and the previous value of 680.0K, and the increase reached 12.2%. The consumer confidence index in June corrected from 102.5 points to 109.7 points instead of the expected 104.0 points, which indicates the confidence of citizens soon, despite the economic crisis. Today, during the day, investors are waiting for the comments of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who will speak at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking and may announce the further actions of the US regulator in the field of monetary policy.

Eurozone

EUR strengthens against GBP, weakens against USD, and is ambiguous against JPY.

Investors focus on the latest comments from European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane, who said he does not expect EU interest rate cuts to begin within the next few years. He also noted that the regulator will make serious progress in slowing down the growth rate of consumer inflation this year but the figure will not reach the target level of 2.0% for a long time. Also today, Germany released data on the consumer climate index from Gfk Group for July, which fell from –24.4 points to –25.4 points instead of the expected growth of –23.0 points. Commenting on these statistics, Rolf Buerkl, an expert from the department, noted that the continuing high rates of inflation significantly undermine the purchasing power of German households. May data on lending in the EU were poor: against an increase in the cost of borrowing, the indicator for enterprises slowed down from 4.6% to 4.0%, and for the private sector – from 2.5% to 2.1%.

The United Kingdom

GBP weakens against EUR, JPY, and USD.

Due to a lack of significant economic releases, the the pound is driven by external factors. Yesterday, the leaders of the largest British retail chains responded to the claims of representatives of Parliament, saying that they do not extract the maximum profit against the crisis in the cost of living in the country and do not shift the increase in prices to buyers but only try to remain competitive and not lose customers. Recall that questions to the management of supermarkets arose since core inflation and price inflation for essential goods in the country are declining extremely slowly. Also today, investors are waiting for the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who can comment on the further steps of the regulator. So far, most experts are confident that the agency will continue to raise the interest rate and bring it to 5.5%.

Japan

JPY weakens against USD, strengthens against GBP, and has ambiguous dynamics against EUR.

On Thursday, investors wait for the release of May retail sales data, which now accounts for a large part of economic growth: the figure could correct by 0.7% MoM after falling 1.2% in April and from 5.0% to 5.4% YoY. The implementation of these forecasts will support the yen.

Australia

AUD weakens against EUR, JPY, GBP, and USD.

The focus of investors is the release of May inflation data: the consumer price index fell from 6.8% to 5.6% YoY, which was better than the forecasted 6.1%, and the growth rate of the index reached its lowest level since April 2022. These data made experts confident that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at the next meeting will keep the interest rate at 4.10%, given that the head of the regulator, Philip Lowe, had previously argued that officials’ decisions are now entirely based on macroeconomic statistics.

Oil

The morning drop in oil prices was replaced by attempts to grow and restore part of the lost positions.

The market is under the influence of several opposing factors: prices continue to be pressured by the risks of a decrease in oil demand due to a slowdown in the US economy and a poor recovery in China after the end of the coronavirus pandemic. Also, today, the Norwegian government announced the development of nineteen new oil and gas fields as part of the country’s strategy to boost mining. A serious decline in quotations is hindered by the data of the latest report on fuel reserves in the US from the American Petroleum Institute (API): the figure fell by 2.408M barrels, exceeding the reduction expected by experts by 1.467M barrels. Similar data is expected to be published today from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA): according to forecasts, commercial energy reserves will adjust by –1.757M barrels, which will support the asset.