EUR/USD holds in a tight range around 1.09. Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, analyzes the pair’s outlook.

Hard to rule out more weakness

Any change in the hawkish ECB policy outlook drumbeat after the weak, preliminary PMI data from the Eurozone last week will hurt the EUR. I don’t expect any change at this point and there is little sign of concern in markets where 22 bps of tightening in July are still being priced in. 

Gains are limited and the short-term pattern of trade retains a soft undertone that makes it hard to rule out more weakness absent more solid EUR gains (above 1.0950 at least).