EUR/JPY has pushed back up to 150. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

Some independent BoJ tightening would be the bearish game changer

Any signs of US disinflation would allow risk assets to stay bid for longer, keeping EUR/JPY bid.

For the ECB, we and the market look for two more 25 bps hikes (June and July) taking the deposit rate to 3.75%. Our team also looks for the first ECB cut in 2Q24.

Unless some financial crisis emerges, it now looks like EUR/JPY can stay stronger for longer. Alternatively, some independent BoJ tightening would have to be the bearish game changer here.