The US Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, June 14 at 18:00 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecast by analysts and researchers of nine major banks. 

Markets expect rates to be kept steady after several Fed officials highlighted a skip. Forward guidance will be key.

Danske Bank

We expect the Fed to maintain rates unchanged. Focus will be on communication around potential hike in July & the updated dots. The Fed is unlikely to close the door for hikes, but we doubt they will materialize.

TDS

We maintain our long-held view that the Fed will tighten rates by a final 25 bps in June to a range of 5.25%-5.50%. If the Fed decides to 'skip' the June meeting, we expect the decision to be accompanied by communication that leans hawkish, signaling a likely hike for July. While a surprise Fed hike might provide some immediate knee-jerk support for the USD, the fact that it is likely the Fed's last hike should reinforce that we're nearing the end of the tactical rally.

Nordea

A pause is likely for the FOMC to digest economic data. Chairman Powell will likely stress at the press conference that the Fed is data-dependent but that it also has a hiking bias. We believe the Fed will raise the Fed funds rate at least one more time this year.

Rabobank

Given Powell’s bias toward a pause in June, we expect the FOMC to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged this month. However, we expect the FOMC to leave the door to a July rate hike wide open to convince the hawks to skip June. Because of the reacceleration of the economy, and the modest impact of the banking turmoil on credit conditions, we now expect the FOMC to resume the hiking cycle in July in order to get inflation under control. For now, we expect one rate hike of 25 bps before the FOMC takes a pause for the remainder of the year.