Strategists at TD Securities analyze Gold (XAU/USD) outlook.

Data has not supported hopes of a Fed pause just yet

The data has not supported hopes of a Fed pause just yet.

Discretionary capital has continued to flow away from the yellow metal, with our gauge still suggesting that discretionary traders have added shorts, in contrast to total non-commercial trading activity. Still, we expect this cohort will ultimately become a boon for Gold bugs, as our proxy of discretionary trader positioning displays a strong historical correlation to market expectations for Fed funds 12m forward. 

Growing expectations for deepening cuts over the next year should soon begin to support higher Gold prices.