Economists at Credit Suisse discuss USD/JPY outlook after the pair broke above the 140 level.

Verbal intervention alone unlikely to turn the USD/JPY’s upward trajectory

As for USD/JPY, spot’s move above 140 finally elicited a response from the authorities. While this led to a reversal in USD/JPY back below 140.00, it is doubtful that verbal intervention of this kind alone is likely to turn the pair’s upward trajectory.

If US data further validate Fed hawkishness this week we can see USD/JPY quickly target 145.00, at which point the risks of actual intervention ahead of the next BoJ meeting would multiply.