Economist at UOB Group Enrico Tanuwidjaja reviews the latest Q1 GDP figures in Thailand.

Key Takeaways

“The Thai economy picked up growth pace in 1Q23 to 2.7% y/y (UOB: 3.0%), almost double the 1.4% recorded in 4Q22, on the back of continued recovery in the tourism industry and steady agriculture production.”

“Private consumption and investment expenditures increased by 5.4% y/y and 3.1% y/y, respectively. Exports of goods and services rose by 3.0%, reversing a decline seen in 4Q22. Nevertheless, government consumption and imports fell by 6.2% and 1.0%, respectively.”

“Based on the 1Q23 GDP data, the Thai economy remains on track to grow at least 3% for this year. We keep our 2023 growth forecast unchanged at 3.1% as the strength of domestic economic recovery appears to be more modest than expected. Nevertheless, we continue to expect higher and steadier tourism income as China’s reopening should bode well for services exports performance. We also keep our forecast for BOT to keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2023 in support of growth recovery as inflation risks subside.”