US DOLLAR UNDER PRESSURE TO START NEW WEEK AHEAD OF CRITICAL FED PUBLICATION

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The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand on Monday and the US Dollar Index (USD) stays within a touching distance of the multi-month low it set below 101.00 on April 14. Investors will pay close attention to the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, which could shed a light on the impact of tight monetary policy on financing conditions, for the first quarter later in the day. This publication could drive the USD's performance against its rivals in the late American session.

The Fed's dovish language in the policy statement in the face of banking woes caused the USD to weaken in the second half of the week. Ahead of the weekend, financial shares registered decisive recovery gains and the USD found it difficult to hold its ground amid improving risk mood.

Daily digest market movers: US Dollar fails to benefit from upbeat jobs report

  • The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 253,000 in April, surpassing the market expectation of 179,000 by a wide margin. On a negative note, March's 236,000 increase got revised lower to 165,000.
  • The Unemployment Rate ticked down to 3.4% in April and the annual wage inflation, as measured by the Average Hourly Earnings, edged higher to 4.4% from 4.3%. 
  • Assessing the labor market data, “since spring 2022, labor supply has increased, but labor demand has not. There are no job vacancy statistics for April," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity at Commerzbank. "However, there is no reason to believe that the high number of new hires is anything other than a continuation of this trend: that vacancies are being filled. However, this would not argue for increased monetary policy pressure and thus for higher USD carry and a stronger Dollar." 
  • The financial-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.65% on Friday and the Nasdaq Composite rose nearly 2%. 
  • The US economic docket will feature Wholesale Inventories data for March.
  • Market participants will also keep a close eye on comments from Fed officials.
  • The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady above 3.4% following Friday's rebound.
  • US stock index futures trade mixed during the European trading hours on Monday.
  • The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a more than 90% probability of the Fed leaving its policy rate unhanged at the next policy meeting.
  • The BLS will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April on Wednesday.

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