The absence of strong catalysts leaves the price action around the dollar – and the rest of the FX space – somewhat muted so far this week.
In the meantime, the marked retracement in the buck since March has been underpinned by the pick-up in the perception that the Federal Reserve could make a pause in its current tightening cycle just after the May meeting.
In favour of a pivot in the Fed’s normalization process, however, still emerges the persevering disinflation, nascent weakness in some key fundamentals and somewhat persistent concerns surrounding the banking sector.
Key events in the US this week: MBA Mortgage Applications, Fed’s Beige Book (Wednesday) – Initial Claims, Philly Fed Index, CB Leading Index, Existing Home Sales (Thursday) - Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs (Friday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Persistent debate over a soft/hard landing of the US economy. Terminal Interest rate near the peak vs. speculation of rate cuts in 2024. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict.
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