If the FX market considers the world to be more uncertain it mainly sees EUR-negative risks, Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, reports.

There will always be some disaster somewhere

“There will always be some disaster somewhere. As I do not know what that will be, I cannot tell whether the unpredictable will be EUR-positive or EUR-negative. But over the past quarters, higher risk perceptions was typically perceived as EUR-negative.”

“The fact that the Euro is trading at relatively high levels at present is due to the fact that there is untypically little going on at present. If that changes and if the pattern seen over the past quarters does not change, the Euro might come under renewed pressure. That is another reason why I am somewhat sceptical about current EUR/USD levels.”