Retail Sales Overview

Early Tuesday, the market sees preliminary readings of Australia's seasonally adjusted Retail Sales for February month at 00:30 GMT. Market consensus suggests a softer seasonally adjusted monthly print of 0.4% versus 1.9% prior, suggesting a reduction in the pressure for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to act faster to tame inflation woes.

Given the recently softer Aussie inflation data and the mixed comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) officials, not to forget the challenges to sentiment ahead of the month-end consolidation, today’s Aussie Retail Sales data appears crucial for the AUD/USD traders.

It should be noted that comments from Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia, Luci Ellis, scheduled for 04:15 AM GMT, also increases the importance of the Asia-Pacific economic calendar on Tuesday.

Ahead of the data, Westpac said,

Our Westpac Card Tracker suggests the underlying trend in retail slowed further in Feb, dipping into negative on a rolling 3mth basis. That said, the volatile monthly profile since Nov, and the big decline in Dec in particular, mean the Feb month is still likely to see a gain vs Jan. A 0.5% rise will still leave retail sales down 1.4% on a 3mth basis (i.e. Dec-Jan-Feb vs Sep-Oct-Nov). With retail prices still rising, this suggests there has been a more pronounced weakening in sales volumes.