The USD/JPY experienced a sharp rebound after finding support at the 130.00 mark. The significant drop after reaching the March high of 138.00 for the pair on a daily timeframe is a clear reflection of the falling US Treasury (UST) bond yields. Amid the ongoing banking adversity, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has signaled a pause, leading to a broad-based US Dollar weakness. In addition, the banking turmoil has ignited fresh safe-haven demand for the Japanese Yen.
With a downside bias intact, the USD/JPY's upward momentum is likely to remain limited. The first resistance for the pair is situated at Wednesday's high of 132.50, which also coincides with the 50-Day Moving Average (DMA). A convincing break above this level could lead the pair to confront the next resistance, a multi-tested broken resistance line coinciding with the 21-DMA.
A strong reversal in price or sudden surge in US Dollar demand could propel the USD/JPY to the March high of 138.00, a key psychological level.
On the other hand, the first support is seen at the 130.00 round figure, followed by the March low at the 129.75 mark. The final support zone is situated around the 128.00 mark.The fundamental picture for the USD/JPY portrays a downside bias, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals a possible pullback due to slightly oversold conditions.
The pair could experience volatility based on any fresh developments in the banking sector, and later in the week, the market will carefully watch the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data release. This key economic indicator could potentially impact the USD/JPY pair.
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