The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to the range of 4.75%-5% on Wednesday, March 22 at 18.00 GMT.
The market positioning suggests that such a decision is already largely priced in, opening the door for a significant reaction to the Fed’s communication, the revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference regarding future policy actions.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 bps hike this week stands at around 84%, an almost certain chance. For the March 22nd meeting, the market is currently pricing in only a 16% chance of the Fed leaving its policy rate, the federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 4.5%-4.75%.
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