As for the Nonfarm Payrolls, this event will be part of a duo that is going to be instrumental in guiding market expectations regarding the policy guidance likely to be offered by the FOMC at the March meeting.
''We look for payroll gains to mean-revert to 230k in February following the gangbuster report that saw job creation surge to 517k in January,'' analysts at TD Securities said. ''We also expect the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at a historically low level; while average hourly earnings likely accelerated to a 0.4% m/m gain, lifting the YoY measure to a still-elevated 4.8%.'' The analysts added, ''we think the hurdle is rather high to see USD weakness prevail; data would have to materially surprise to the downside.''
We then have the US Consumer Price Index next week and analysts see this increase by 0.4% MoM and headline CPI to rise by 0.5% in February.
''Price pressures were intense and broad-based in January, more so than in previous months. A potential sign that inflation pressures are intensifying again,'' analysts at ANZ Bank said. ''Annual revisions to the CPI seasonal factors by the BLS show inflation over the course of H2 2022 did not ease as much as initially reported. This means the Fed is facing a more persistent sticky inflation battle than it thought earlier this year,'' the analysts argued.
''Recent activity and inflation data portray a resilient economy suggesting the Fed still has more work to do to slow demand, particularly in the labor market. We expect there will be upward revisions to the terminal fed funds rate (FFR) forecast at the March FOMC meeting,'' the analysts at ANZ added leaving scope for a headwind for the Gold price bugs for the imminent future.
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