The last month has been characterised by a stall in the EUR rally. Economists at Danske Bank lower their downward sloping profile slightly but maintain a bottom above parity.
Tide is turning
“We have long argued the strategic case for a lower EUR/USD based on relative terms of trade, real rates (growth prospects) and relative unit labour costs. Meanwhile, we increasingly think there is a potential for the cross to also head lower on a short-term horizon driven by the market realisation that financial conditions need to tighten, relative rates as well as relative asset demand.”
“As a difference to the period from September to early January, Eurozone equities are now underperforming peers, which could be an indication that EUR/USD has peaked.”
“We lower our downward sloping profile slightly but maintain a bottom above parity, as we believe new energy/real rate shocks are required for a return to the September lows.”
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