According to the latest Reuters poll of economists, the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen raising rates by another 50 basis points (bps) at its February monetary policy meeting while the policy rate is expected to reach 3.25% by mid-year.

Additional takeaways

They are likely to follow that up with another 50 basis point lift in March.

The central bank will then add 25 basis points next quarter before pausing, giving a terminal rate in the current cycle of 3.25%, its highest since late 2008.

In December's poll, the rate was put at 2.50% at end-March and was seen topping out at 2.75%.

Inflation will average 6.0% this year and 2.5% next but will be 2.0% across 2025.

The economy was now expected to grow 0.1% next quarter rather than a flatline. It is forecast to expand 0.3% in the following two quarters.

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