There is a growing chance that gold may be forming a short-term floor and could rise toward the upper end of the recently established range.
In recent weeks, XAU/USD has struggled to break below the horizontal trendline from 2021 at about 1675-1680, roughly coinciding with the 200-week moving average. If the yellow metal closes this week around the current level, it would be the third back-to-back long-legged candle on the weekly charts, implying support at lower levels not too far from 1675-1680.
However, XAU/USD needs to break above immediate resistance at the end-October high of 1675 at minimum for immediate downward pressure to fade. That’s because the stalling of the down trend recently could also be interpreted as a digestive pause before gold embarks on its next leg lower.
Any break above 1675 could push the metal towards a stiff barrier on the upper edge of a falling channel from June, roughly coinciding with the 89-day moving average. This combined resistance has capped rallies in recent months (see chart). There is a stronger hurdle at the early-October high of 1729, which could be tough to crack as the trend on longer-term charts remains bearish.
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