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USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair plunged to 102.86 on the dollar’s sell-off and despite a generally positive market’s mood, ending the day a few pips above the 103.00 threshold. The pair remained depressed as US Treasury yields edged lower following dismal employment-related data, as the number of those claiming unemployment benefits jumped in the week ended December 11. Record highs in Wall Street prevented USD/JPY from falling further.
Japan will publish this Friday, November National inflation, with the core reading expected at -0.9%. The Bank of Japan is having a monetary policy meeting, although no changes are expected in the current monetary policy.
The USD/JPY pair is consolidating losses and could extend its decline during the upcoming sessions. The 4-hour chart shows that the 20 SMA has continued to decline below the larger ones and above the current level, now in the 103.50 price zone. The RSI indicator consolidates around 30, while the Momentum bounced modestly from daily lows, holding within negative levels.
Support levels: 102.70 102.20 101.80
Resistance levels: 103.50 103.90 104.30
GBPUSD
The GBP/USD pair soared to 1.3622 on Brexit, holding on to gains despite not so encouraging headlines. In fact, mixed news kept coming, as the peak came on reports saying that EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier suggested that a deal can be achieved by Friday. Later in the day, hopes cooled after PM Boris Johnson’s spokesman said that the most likely outcome would be a deal on WTO terms. British Cabinet Minister Michael Gove repeated the comment and added that there still are significant differences in some areas. He also said that trade talks might go on until after Christmas.
The Bank of England had a monetary policy meeting, and, as widely anticipated, policymakers maintained the current policy unchanged. It was a non-event, with central bankers going quietly ahead of Brexit definitions. This Friday, the UK will publish the December GFK Consumer Confidence survey, foreseen at -31, and November Retail Sales, expected to have fallen by 4.2% MoM.
The GBP/USD pair has stabilized around the 1.3600 level during US trading hours, ignoring the latest Brexit discouraging headlines. Chances of a downward movement are quite limited according to intraday technical readings. The 4-hour chart shows that the price is consolidating above bullish moving averages, while technical indicators lost their bullish strength but remain near overbought readings.
Support levels: 1.3550 1.3500 1.3445
Resistance levels: 1.3620 1.3665 1.3710
AUDUSD
The AUD/USD pair surged to 0.7639, its highest in over two years during Asian trading hours, following the release of upbeat Australian employment figures. The country added 90K new job positions in November, better than the 50K expected, while the Unemployment rate came in at 6.8%, improving from 7%. Most of the new positions were full-time ones, 84.2K. Despite the broad greenback’s weakness, the pair was unable to extend gains during the last two sessions and ended the day in the 0.7620 price zone. Australia won’t release macroeconomic data this Friday.
The AUD/USD pair holds on to most of its intraday gains, and despite the lack of bullish momentum, the risk remains skewed to the upside. The 4-hour chart shows that technical indicators are modestly retreating from overbought readings, but also that the pair remains far above bullish moving averages. The pair could reach the 0.7700 price zone before entering a corrective decline ahead of the weekend.
Support levels: 0.7610 0.7565 0.7520
Resistance levels: 0.7640 0.7675 0.7710
GOLD
Gold extended its move up as the USD index DXY tested its lowest level since April 2018 sliding sub-90.00 levels. Dovish Fed statements including the fate of the bond purchases weighed on USD on Thursday. Fed ''will continue the pace of bond buys until 'substantial' progress on goals.'' as confirmed by Powell adding that 'we have the ability to buy more bonds, or buy longer-term bonds, and may use it, and ''any time we feel like the economy could use stronger accommodation we ‘would be prepared to provide it.' On the other hand, markets are still pricing a done deal for the stimulus package which is expected to be announced before the Christmas holiday. The expectation also triggers the capital flows to Gold with further weakness in the USD is expected.
Gold tested its highest level since mid-November while the US 10-year continues its uptrend at 0.94%. From the technical point of view, below the $1,860 level, the supports can be followed at $1,800, $1,763 ($1,451-$2,075 61.80%) and $1,700 levels. Over the $1,860 level, the resistances can be followed at $1,900 with $1,956 ($1,451-$2,075 38.20%) and $2,000 levels.
Support Levels: $1,800 $1,763 $1,700
Resistance Levels: $1,900 $1,956 $2,000
SILVER
Silver once again outperformed Gold in a precious metal positive day. The USD index DXY extended its decline on Thursday after the dovish FOMC while precious metals capitalised the weakness in the USD. On the other hand, expectations of a higher than expected inflation in the US is also supporting the precious metals. Gold to Silver ratio tested 72.00 zones indicating the better performance from Silver as the white metal tested its highest level since the beginning of November at $26.00. Silver broke its consolidation zone between $22.90 and $25.50 decisively making its way for fırther gains.
Below the $22.90 level ($11.63-$29.86 38.20%), the supports can be followed at $20.75 ($11.63-$29.86 50.00%) and $18.42 ($11.63-$29.86 61.80%). Over the $22.90 level, the targets up can be followed at $25.21 ($11.63-$29.86 23.60%), $26.00 (August-September support), $27.00 and $28.00 levels.
Support Levels: $22.90 $20.75 $18.42
Resistance Levels: $25.21 $26.00 $27.00
CRUDE WTI
WTI extended its incline to its highest level since the beginning of March. Larger than expected decline was seen int the crude oil inventories combined with the vaccine and stimulus optimism all supported the latest move up seen in WTI. The EIA reported crude oil inventories dropped a larger-than-expected 3.1M bbls vs an expected 2.2M bbl decline. Adding to this somewhat positive data, was the lower-than-expected one million bbl build in gasoline and a very small 167K bbl increase in distillate inventories. The trade side of the supply-demand equation was also tilted toward the positive as exports growth of 793K b/d was outpaced by import decline of 1.055 million b/d. Also, on the positive side for prices was the 100K b/d US crude oil supply decline and the 800K b/d jump in petroleum product demand. Further move up is limited as OPEC+ decided to increase oil production at a gradual pace.
Next supports can be seen at $47.00, $45.00 and $43.88 respectively while the resistances can be followed at $48.00, $48.50 and $49.00 levels.
Support Levels: $47.00 $45.00 $43.88
Resistance Levels: $48.00 $48.50 $49.00
DODDOODWWWW
Dow Jones re-tested its all-time high on Thursday at 30,300 zones in the aftermath of FOMC and Powell speech. It was highlighted on the FOMC statement that provided new guidance on the timeline for tapering asset purchases by announcing that it will continue to increase its asset holdings at the current rate "until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. FOMC’s open-end support message was considered as highly dovish and as a result, the USD index DXY sank to its lowest level in 2.5 years testing sub-90.00 levels. On the other hand, it is widely expected that the stimulus deal will be done before the Christmas holiday as Capitol Hill negotiators are reportedly on the brink of a $900B coronavirus rescue package; would include a new round of direct payments, but would leave out state and local aid, and a liability shield is on the table. While it's much-expected stimulus deal is on the table, weekly labour data reading showed that the pressure is on as a result of new lockdown measures. There were 885,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US during the week ending December 12th, the data published by the US Department of Labor (DOL) revealed on Thursday. This reading followed last week's print of 862,000 (revised from 853,000) and missed the market expectation of 800,000 by a wide margin.
From the technical point of view, if the index stays over 29,000, 29,500 and 30,000 levels can be followed as new targets high while below the 28,400 level, 28,000 and 27,770 can be followed as supports.
Support Levels: 28,400 28,000 27,770
Resistance Levels: 29,500 30,000 30,500
MACROECONOMIC EVENTS
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