NCM Investment - The Festival of GOLD
OPEN ACCOUNT AND GET A CHANCE TO WIN GOLD
For more details: https://www.nooralmal.com/gold...
Official Website: https://www.nooralmal.com/
EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair finished the week with sharp losses at 1.1645, its lowest daily settlement for October. The dollar appreciated on Friday against most of its major rivals, as speculative interest remained worried about the coronavirus outbreak in Europe, and the upcoming US presidential election that will take place this Tuesday. On Saturday, the US reported over 99K new cases in the previews 24 hours, although President Donald Trump refuses to pause the economic activity, which keeps giving an advantage to the greenback.
Data released at the end of the week showed that Germany and EU economic growth was better than anticipated in Q3, as the Gross Domestic Product estimates came in at 8.25 and 12.7% respectively. However, ECB’s President Lagarde anticipated another setback in Q4, overshadowing the good news.
This Monday, Markit will publish the final readings of its October Manufacturing PMIs for the EU and the US, while this last will release the official ISM Manufacturing PMI for the same month, foreseen at 55.6 from 55.4.
The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows that after breaking below the 20 DMA, it is currently struggling around a mildly bullish 100 DMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, stand within negative levels, the Momentum consolidating at weekly lows and the RSI maintaining its downward slope, all of which skews the risk to the downside. In the shorter-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair is also in a bearish path, developing below all of its moving averages, and with technical indicators consolidating within negative levels. The immediate support level is 1.1611, where the pair bottomed in September, with a break below it exposing 1.1470 a long term static support level.
Support levels: 1.1610 1.1565 1.1520
Resistance levels: 1.1685 1.1720 1.1770
USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair closed the week unchanged in the 104.60 price zone, after bottoming for October at 104.02. The pair advanced ahead of the weekly close as US Treasury yields surged, with that on the 10-year note hitting a multi-month high of 0.88%, and closing the week at 0.87%.
Japanese data released on Friday mostly missed expectations, as October Tokyo inflation was down 0.3% YoY and the core reading ex-fresh food fell 0.5% in the same period. September Housing Starts fell 9.9%, worse than the 8.6% expected, while Construction Orders were down 10.6%. On a positive note, the unemployment rate remained steady at 3%, while Industrial Production surged 4% monthly basis. Early Monday the country will release the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, seen at 48.4 in October, better than initially estimated.
The USD/JPY pair is poised to extend its decline, according to technical readings in the daily chart. It’s developing below all of its moving averages, which head marginally lower, while technical indicators are stable within negative levels. The pair bottomed around 104.00 in September and October, although to confirm a reversal figure would need to advance beyond 106.10, quite an unlikely scenario. In the shorter-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair has room to extend its latest advance, as it has broken above its 20 SMA, while technical indicators settled above their midlines, with moderated bullish slopes.
Support levels: 104.30 103.95 103.50
Resistance levels: 105.05 105.40 105.85
GBPUSD
The GBP/USD pair posted a modest intraday advance on Friday but ended the week in the red at 1.2950. The British Pound surged against its American rival to 1.2987 amid the absence of UK data and quietness on the Brexit front, but the pair gave up to dollar’s demand ahead of the monthly close. The pair will likely gap lower at the weekly opening, as rampant new COVID-19 cases in the UK led to a new one-month lockdown. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a nationwide lockdown on Saturday, also extending coronavirus wage subsidies.
This Monday, Markit will publish the final version of its UK October Manufacturing PMI, foreseen unchanged at 53.3. Later this week, the Bank of England is having a monetary policy meeting, and speculative interest expects policymakers to expand facilities, particularly after the latest announcement on more restrictions.
The GBP/USD pair is neutral-to-bearish according to the daily chart, as it’s trading between its 20 and 100 DMAs, which lack directional strength. In the mentioned time-frame, technical indicators are flat around their midlines. In the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the downside, as the pair met sellers around a bearish 20 SMA, which extends its decline below the 100 SMA. The Momentum indicator advances around its midline, but the RSI consolidates at 44. The weekly low at 1.2880 is the immediate support level.
Support levels: 1.2880 1.2835 1.2770
Resistance levels: 1.2950 1.2990 1.3030
AUDUSD
The AUD/USD pair finished October in the red in the 0.7020 price zone, affected by the persistent risk-off mood. Demand for the greenback dominated the scenes amid a second wave of coronavirus hitting the northern hemisphere, delaying chances of an economic comeback. The pair managed to hold above the critical 0.7000 threshold as Australia has somehow controlled the latest outbreak in the country, and is slowly moving into reopening. However, things are doing just a bit better than in other battered economies, despite almost 4-month restrictions in the Victoria region.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is having a monetary policy meeting this week, and Governor Lowe has anticipated a possible rate cut to a record low of 0.1%. On Monday, Australia will publish the Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI for October, foreseen at 54.2 and October TD Securities Inflation.
The AUD/USD pair is technically bearish, although it needs to break below the 0.7000 figure to accelerate its slump. The daily chart shows that the pair is below converging 20 and 100 DMAs, while technical indicators consolidate within negative levels, favoring a bearish continuation. The 4-hour chart shows that a firmly bearish 20 SMA capped intraday advances, currently around 0.7070. Technical indicators in this last time-frame remain within negative levels with uneven strength, falling short of anticipating an upcoming advance.
Support levels: 0.6990 0.6950 0.6910
Resistance levels: 0.7070 0.7110 0.7160
GOLD
Gold tried to pick up some momentum on Friday but failed to overcome the $1,900 level. The sharp rebound in risk appetite pushed precious metals lower and supported the USD index DXY last week. The uncertainty surrounding the elections and the stimulus talks combined with the lockdowns in Europe sparked the risk aversion. At this point, Gold’s fate solely depends on the election in the US this week. A net Biden with a Democrats dominated Congress is expected to support precious metals while a mixed result will most likely trigger another sales wave for equity and precious metals. On the other hand, the UK joined France and Germany announcing a nationwide lockdown due to the rising number of new cases which surpassed the first wave.
This week, it will be all about the elections in the US. In case of a possible delay for the election results due to votes sent by post, markets will most likely to face volatility. Apart from the elections in the US, the week will kick-off with Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct) in China and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) in the US. On Tuesday, the elections in the US will be followed and ADP Employment Change (Oct) with ISM Services PMI(Oct) on Wednesday will be tracked. On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (Oct 30) with Fed Interest Rate Decision followed by Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and FOMC Press Conference. It is highly expected that the Fed will not change its monetary policy but the press conference will be important in terms of verbal direction. Finally, on Friday, the NFP data set will be followed by the markets.
Below the $1,860 level, the supports can be followed at $1,763 ($1,451-$2,075 61.80%) and $1,700 levels. Over the $1,860 level, the resistances can be followed at $1,900 with $1,956 ($1,451-$2,075 38.20%) and $2,000 levels.
Support Levels: $1,860 $1,763 $1,700
Resistance Levels: $1,900 $1,956 $2,000
SILVER
After spending most of the week with a decline, Silver also managed to gain ground on Friday as the USD index DXY retraced slightly. The index slid below 94.00 and precious metals moved-up. Gold to Silver ratio slid below 80.00 level again as the white metal outperformed Gold in a typical risk-on trade. The presidential election this week will set the course for all markets as it will have a direct impact on the USD. Therefore, volatility will be high in the short-term until the election results are cleared. A blue-wave result which means a dominant Democrat win will most likely to pressure the USD and therefore precious metals can be supported.
Below the $22.90 level ($11.63-$29.86 38.20%), the supports can be followed at $20.75 ($11.63-$29.86 50.00%) and $18.42 ($11.63-$29.86 61.80%). Over the $22.90 level, the targets up can be followed at $25.21 ($11.63-$29.86 23.60%), $26.00 (August-September support), $27.00 and $28.00 levels.
Support Levels: $22.90 $20.75 $18.42
Resistance Levels: $25.21 $26.00 $27.00
CRUDE WTI
WTI managed to end the week above its weekly dip but stayed in the negative territory on Friday after the Baker Hughes’ report. Baker Hughes reported that the number of active oil rigs in the US increased by 10 to 221. These numbers confirm the sixth consecutive increase in the oil rig count, which adds concerns about an oversupply as the second wave of the pandemic accelerates. WTI lost 11% on a weekly basis sparked by the fears of a decline in demand caused by the second wave of the pandemic combined by the oversupply fears. France and Germany announced national lockdown measures followed by the UK on Friday. On the other hand, OPEC+ members are divided about Russia and Saudi Arabia’s idea of extending the current output cuts of 7.7 million barrels a day into next year also weighed on the prices.
Technically speaking, $33.00 zone stands as the breakdown level to confirm a bear market has started. Below the $37.00, the supports can be followed at $33.23 ($0.00-$43.49 23.60%), $26.88 ($0.00-$43.49 38.20%) and $21.75 ($0.00-$43.49 50.00%). Over the $37.00 zone, resistance can be followed at $39.00, $40.00 and $42.00 zone (July-august consolidation range).
Support Levels: $33.23 $26.88 $21.75
Resistance Levels: $39.00 $40.00 $42.00
DOW JONES
Dow Jones extended its slide on Friday but managed to get away from its daily lows at 26,150. Wall Street faced its biggest decline since March led by the underperformed tech-shares. Apple, Amazon, Twitter and Facebook faced pressure as they all underperformed during Q3. On the other hand, as the elections in the US just at the corner, the CBOE volatility index VIX hit to its 20-week high reflecting the flight to safety. While it is clear that the stimulus deal will be handled after the elections, it is extremely important for the markets to have a clear result with a blue-wave win for Democrats which means a win for the Presidency, the Senate and the House. In a contrary scenario, markets will face certain volatility due to uncertainty. Apart from the elections, the direction of the pandemic gets worse forcing Germany, France and the UK to announce partial lockdown measures at least until December. The number of daily new cases is higher than the first wave in Europe. However, the governments are more cautious to take extreme countermeasures and try to keep the economies open as much as possible.
On Tuesday, all the world’s attention will be on the elections in the US. Later this week, the ADP Employment Change (Oct) with ISM Services PMI(Oct) on Wednesday will be tracked. On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average (Oct 30) with Fed Interest Rate Decision followed by Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and FOMC Press Conference will be followed. It is highly expected that the Fed will not change its monetary policy but the press conference will be important in terms of verbal direction. Finally, on Friday, the NFP data set will be followed by the markets.
If Dow Jones keeps its stance over 27,000 level decisively, 27,583 (June 2020 high), 28,000 and 28,402 levels can be followed as resistances. Below the 27,000 level, the supports can be followed at 26,000 with 25,210 (29,568-18,158 61.80%) and 24,690 (2020 April-May resistance) levels.
Support Levels: 26,000 25,210 24,690
Resistance Levels: 27,583 28,000 28,402
MACROECONOMIC EVENTS
* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.
Please remember that trading financial markets carry a high degree of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial stake. Leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
All Rights Reserved © Noor Al Mal
إخلاء المسؤولية: الآراء الواردة هنا تعبر فقط عن رأي الكاتب، ولا تمثل الموقف الرسمي لـ Followme. لا تتحمل Followme مسؤولية دقة أو اكتمال أو موثوقية المعلومات المُقدمة، ولا تتحمل مسؤولية أي إجراءات تُتخذ بناءً على المحتوى، ما لم يُنص على ذلك صراحةً كتابيًا.
اترك رسالتك الآن