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EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair extended its weekly decline to 1.1611 on Friday, as demand for the greenback prevailed despite mixed US data. The country published August Durable Goods Orders, which increased 0.4%, below the 1.0% expected, although Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft jumped 1.8%. Speculative interest ignored the better shape of stocks’ indexes, as Wall Street got to close in the green. Concerns about sluggish economic growth amid the ongoing pandemic remain behind the latest dollar’s strength.
The shared currency, on the other hand, remained under pressure amid the second wave of coronavirus in the Union, forcing governments to impose restrictions. The week will start in slow motion, as the EU won’t publish relevant data, while the US will release a minor figure, the September Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.
The EUR/USD pair has turned bearish, and technical readings in the daily chart indicate that the slump may continue next week. The pair has fallen below a now mildly bearish 20 DMA, while the Momentum indicator consolidates within negative levels and the RSI heads lower near oversold readings. In the shorter-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk is also skewed to the downside, as selling interest remains aligned around a firmly bearish 20 SMA, currently at 1.1665. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have pared their declines, but remain within negative levels, indicating limited buying interest.
Support levels: 1.1605 1.1560 1.1520
Resistance levels: 1.1665 1.1715 1.1760
USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair closed the week with substantial gains around 105.60, amid continued dollar’s demand. By the end of the week, Wall Street’s rally provided additional support to the pair. US Treasury yields, on the other hand, ticked lower after softer-than-expected US data, keeping the upside at check.
In the data front, Japan published the August Corporate Service Price Index, which came in at 1% YoY, below the 1.4% expected. At the beginning of the week, the country will publish the final versions of the July Leading Economic Index, and the Coincident Index for the same month. It will also release September Tokyo inflation, seen at 0.4% YoY. The core reading, which excludes fresh food prices is foreseen at 0.3%.
The USD/JPY pair has settled above the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily slump at 105.40, although the bullish potential remains limited, according to the daily chart. In the mentioned time-frame, the pair remains below a flat 20 DMA, while the larger ones are well above this last. Technical indicators, in the meantime, recovered from oversold levels but were unable to enter positive levels. In the 4-hour chart, the pair settled a few pips above its 100 SMA while the 20 SMA continues to advance below the current level. Technical indicators lost their bullish strength, but remain within positive levels.
Support levels: 105.40 105.00 104.55
Resistance levels: 105.80 106.25 106.60
GBPUSD
The GBP/USD pair closed a third consecutive day unchanged around 1.2740 last Friday, as the Pound found support in Brexit-related headline. The EU and the UK will start their ninth round of talks this Tuesday, the final stage of Brexit trade talks ahead of the EU summit that will take place in Brussels in mid-October. However, the prevalent demand for the American currency kept the pair confined to familiar levels. By the end of the week, the UK published August Public Sector Net Borrowing, which increased by more than anticipated, reaching£35.195 B from £14.71 B in the previous month.
Meanwhile, more than a quarter of the UK population has to attend restrictive measures, as the latest outbreak in the kingdom is speeding up. With over 6,000 new daily cases in the past four days, Labours have said the government should consider putting on hold the return to universities. The UK won’t release relevant macroeconomic data this Monday.
From a technical point of view, the GBP/USD pair is at risk of falling further. In the daily chart, the pair is stuck around converging 100 and 200 DMAs, while below a bearish 20 DMA. Technical indicators in the mentioned time-frame hold within negative levels, although without directional strength. In the shorter-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair is neutral-to-bearish, unable to advance beyond a bearish 20 SMA, and below the larger ones, which keep heading south. The Momentum indicator is flat around its 100 level, while the RSI indicator stands near oversold readings.
Support levels: 1.2700 1.2665 1.2620
Resistance levels: 1.2780 1.2830 1.2870
AUDUSD
The AUD/USD pair flirted with the 0.7000 level on Friday, ending the day not far above this last while suffering the largest weekly decline since mid-March. Australian data failed to impress, as the country published the preliminary estimate of the August Trade Balance, which posted a surplus 0f 4294M, below the previous 4607M. Imports were down 7% in the month, while exports fell 2%. By the end of the week, gold prices held steady, with spot trading at around $1,861.00 a troy ounce. The macroeconomic calendar has nothing to offer at the beginning of the week.
The AUD/USD pair is at risk of falling further as in the daily chart, it is trading below a bearish 20 DMA and a few pips above the 100 DMA, which maintains a mildly bullish slope. Technical indicators, in the meantime, maintain their bearish slopes. In the shorter-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair is bearish, as the 20 SMA heads firmly lower above the current level and below the larger ones, while technical indicators hold within negative levels, lacking bullish strength.
Support levels: 0.7000 0.6965 06930
Resistance levels: 0.7040 0.7085 0.7120
GOLD
Gold lost its grip once again on Friday sliding well below 1.900$ as the USD index DXY extended its move up to mid-94.00 levels. Gold had a weekly loss of %4.5, which marks the lowest level in the last two months as the markets are gearing up for the NFP data set this week. At this point, the new stimulus programme might save Gold only as the USD is keeping its move up without clear info on the new support for the household in the US. On the other hand, According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 22, Gold futures’ NET LENGTH slumped -21 917 contracts to 219 060. Speculative long positions declined -15 497 contracts while shorts added +6 420.
The economic calendar for Gold will start on Tuesday with a couple of FED official’s speeches while on Wednesday Non-Manufacturing PMI(Sep) and NBS Manufacturing PMI(Sep) data sets from China will be followed. Also on Wednesday, ADP Employment Change(Sep) and Gross Domestic Product Annualized(Q2) data sets will be followed in the US session before the busy Thursday US data calendar which includes personal income, personal spending, initial jobless claims and ISM Manufacturing readings. Later on Friday, the NFP data set will take the stage.
Gold is testing its support at 1.860$ (1.451$-2.075$ %50). Below this level, the supports can be followed at 1.763$ (1.451$-2.075$ %61.80) and 1.700$ levels. Over the 1.860$ level, the resistances can be followed at 1.900$, 1.956$ (1.451$-2.075$ %38.20) and 2.000$ levels.
Support Levels: 1.860$ 1.763$ 1.700$
Resistance Levels: 1.900$ 1.956$ 2.000$
SILVER
As the USD index DXY kept its momentum, Silver also lost a portion of gains made on Thursday in the last day of the trading week. The USD index pushed itself to mid 94.00 level as the uncertainty surrounding the household stimulus programme continues. On the other hand, during this USD strength period, Silver also underperformed compared to Gold and the Gold to Silver ratio lifted to 81.00 levels. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 22, Silver futures’ NET LENGTH gained +598 contracts to 38 947. In the long run, the current pullback might give investors to expand their Silver portfolios as the monetary policy environment is in favour of the precious metals in General.
Below the 22.90$ level (11.63$-29.86$ %38.20$), the supports can be followed at 20.75$ (11.63$-29.86$ %50.00) and 18.42$ (11.63$-29.86$ %61.80). Over the 22.90$ level, the targets up can be followed at 25.21$ (11.63$-29.86$ %23.60), 26.00$ (August-September support), 27.00$ and 28.00$ levels.
Support Levels: 22.90$ 20.75$ 18.42$
Resistance Levels: 25.21$ 26.00$ 27.00$
CRUDE WTI
WTI had a lifeless trading session on Friday barely ending the week over 40.00$ with a marginal loss. Last week, OPEC+ JMMC decided to keep output levels at their current rate until December as the continuing issues surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic creates anxiety in terms of demand. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended September 22, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures +23 025 contracts to 472 769 for the week. Speculative long position dropped -1 159 contracts, while shorts plunged -24 184 contracts indicating bullish expectations of the traders.
After the plunge seen at the beginning of September, WTI managed to return back to its consolidation zone between 40.00$ and 42.00$. If WTI manages to hold over 40.56$ (65.62$-0.00$ %61.80) level, the targets upside can be followed at 41.00$, 46.57$ (March decline start) and 50.00$ levels. Below the 40.00$, the supports can be followed at 39.00$ and 32.81$ (65.62$-0.00$ %50) and 31.00$ levels.
Support Levels: 39.00$ 32.81$ 31.00$
Resistance Levels: 41.00$ 46.57$ 50.00$
DOW JONES
After the series of sell-off days, Dow Jones managed to re-gain traction on Friday and lift itself over 27.000 levels. As the sell-off caused by the tech-shares, also the move-up came with the support of the tech-shares once more. However, Both Dow Jones and S&P printed their longest weekly losing streaks this year as the uncertainty of the economies prevails. The action on Friday can be named as dip-buying opening a way for more gains in the US indexes in the coming future. On the other hand, as the election in the US is coming closer, The latest Marquette University survey finds Biden at 50%, compared with 40% for Trump. The president’s job approval rating sits at 41% positive and 58% negative while 51% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy. Also, 38% approve of his handling of the coronavirus situation which indicates an election loss of Trump is on the way.
On Tuesday, a couple of FED official’s speeches will start the economic calendar for the US. Also on Wednesday, ADP Employment Change(Sep) and Gross Domestic Product Annualized(Q2) data sets will be followed in the US session. On Thursday, personal income, personal spending, initial jobless claims and ISM Manufacturing readings before Friday's NFP data-set which will set a course for the USD.
If Dow Jones keeps its stance over 27.000 level decisively, 27.583 (June 2020 high), 28.000 and 28.402 levels can be followed as resistances. Below the 27.000 level, the supports can be followed at 26.000, 25.210 (29.568-18.158 %61.80) and 24.690 (2020 April-May resistance) levels.
Support Levels: 26.000 25.210 24.690
Resistance Levels: 27.583 28.000 28.402
MACROECONOMIC EVENTS
* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.
Please remember that trading financial markets carry a high degree of risk to your capital. It is possible to lose more than your initial stake. Leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors, therefore please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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