The Euro has gone back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday, showing a proclivity for noisy trading. As we head into the Federal Reserve meeting, there are a lot of concerns about whether or not Wall Street will get its fix, cheap money that is. All things being equal, I suspect that the Federal Reserve will not do much going forward, so it is likely that the market will remain very noisy, but it must be noted that longer-term the Euro is in an uptrend.
The 50 day EMA is sitting near the 1.17 level, and as a result it is a short-term “floor in the market”, as we have seen the market bounce from that area. However, the last several days look a bit “tired”, as we are fading from the 1.19 level has become the main theme. Furthermore, the shooting star that formed during the trading session on Tuesday just solidifies the problems that we may be facing with the uptrend.
Ultimately, it is not until we break above the 1.20 level that I think the market can continue to go higher from a longer-term standpoint, and quite frankly the Federal Reserve is probably the only reason that this market takes off to the upside, so we will have to see whether or not the Federal Reserve suddenly becomes even more dovish. I doubt it will, so at the end of the day we will probably continue this back-and-forth type of noise in the short term before making a bigger decision. #FX##EUR/USD#
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