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EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair peaked at 1.1887 as the greenback eased against all of its major rivals. The market mood was mostly upbeat, spurred but weekend news reporting that Oxford and AstraZeneca resume trials on their potential coronavirus vaccine. A scarce macroeconomic calendar and first-tier events later this week kept investors in cautious mode, with major pairs holding within familiar levels.
The EU published July Industrial Production, which was up 4.1% in the month, beating expectations. When compared to a year earlier, it rose 8.7% better than the 8% expected. This Tuesday, Germany will publish the September ZEW Survey, with the Economic Sentiment seen at 69.8 in the country, and expected at 62.8 in the EU, both below the previous readings. The US will publish August Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.
The EUR/USD pair is trading in the 1.1860 price zone, up for the day. Ahead of the Asian opening, it has lost the positive momentum seen earlier in the day, but the risk remains skewed to the upside. The 4-hour chart shows that the price holds above all of its moving averages, whit the 20 SMA heading higher and crossing above the larger ones. The Momentum indicator has turned lower, while the RSI turned flat within positive levels, indicating limited selling interest. The 61.8% retracement of its September declines comes at 1.1915, while the pair reached a high last week at 1.1917. Gains beyond it should favor a bullish extension towards the year high at 1.2011.
Support levels: 1.1840 1.1800 1.1750
Resistance levels: 1.1915 1.1960 1.2010
USDJPY
The USD/JPY pair returned to life at the beginning of the American session, falling to a fresh 2-week low of 105.54. The trigger was the persistent dollar’s weakness, with the pair falling despite the positive tone of US equities, as the three major indexes surged. US Treasury yields, in the meantime, remained flat throughout the day.
In the data front, Japan published at the beginning of the day the Tertiary Industry Index for July, which fell 0.5%, missing the market’s expectations. Industrial Production in the same month was up 8.7%, while Capacity Utilization improved to 9.6%, both beating expectations. The country won’t release macroeconomic data this Tuesday.
The USD/JPY pair has stabilized in the 105.60 price zone by the end of the day, bearish in the short-term, although still holding above a critical support level, 105.50. The 4-hour chart shows that it’s holding below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining bearish strength just above the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, lost bearish momentum but remain near their daily lows, favoring another leg lower.
Support levels: 105.90 105.50 105.10
Resistance levels: 106.35 106.70 107.10
GBPUSD
Decreased demand for the American currency helped GBP/USD to recover some ground this Monday, although the Pound remains the weakest, amid Brexit-related turmoil. The UK Parliament discussed the Internal Market Bill, and UK PM Johnson defended it, saying that it will give the kingdom a “more real possibility” of a trade deal with the EU. However, former UK PMs David Cameron and Theresa May have warned about the Internal Market Bill saying it could damage the UK’s international reputation.
The UK didn’t publish macroeconomic data on Monday but will unveil employment figures this Tuesday. The ILO unemployment rate for the three months to July is foreseen at 4.1% up from the previous 3.8%. The number of unemployed people in the UK is foreseen rising to 100K in August, from 94.4K in the previous month.
The GBP/USD pair reached a daily high of 1.2918 on the back of the dollar’s weakness, easing from the high to end the US session in the 1.2860 price zone. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair holds below a bearish 20 SMA, which stands far below the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, recovered from oversold readings but remain within negative levels, with the RSI flat, reflecting the absence of buying interest.
Support levels: 1.2810 1.2760 1.2715
Resistance levels: 1.2920 1.2965 1.3000
AUDUSD
The AUD/USD pair remained within familiar levels this Monday, ending the day little changed in the 0.7290 price zone. The pair posted a modest advance during US trading hours despite rising equities, as the American currency got to recover some ground at the same time. The Aussie also refused to move, despite gold prices were also up. Nevertheless, it also seems as speculative interest doesn’t want to push the price beyond the 0.7300 threshold, somehow anticipating the pair is close to an interim top.
All eyes now turn to the RBA Meeting Minutes that will be out during the upcoming Asian session. Policymakers kept rates on hold at a record low of 0.25% earlier this month, and repeated that the economic downturn “is not as severe as earlier expected and a recovery is now under way in most of Australia.” It seems unlikely that today’s document would impact the market, although investors may react to the current risk-on mood after the RBA is done. Worth noting that China will publish August Industrial Production and Retail Sales for the same month.
The AUD/USD pair is neutral-to-bullish in the short-term, lacking enough momentum to confirm an upcoming advance. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is developing a few pips above a mildly bullish 20 SMA, which advances above the 100 SMA. Technical indicators, however, have turned lower and stand within neutral levels. The pair needs to break above 0.7310, the immediate resistance level, to become more attractive for bulls.
Support levels: 0.7250 0.7215 0.7170
Resistance levels: 0.7310 0.7350 0.7385
GOLD
Gold benefited from a decline of the U.S. dollar across the board. The greenback, reached the lowest since last Thursday measured by the DXY that dropped back under 93.00, approaching last week lows. Higher equity prices also offered support to gold but gains were limited. Despite moving higher, the yellow metal continues to be sideways, without a clear trend, but now closer to the upper limit. The economic calendar is starting to get busy on Tuesday with Chinese data and the beginning of the two-day FOMC meeting.
XAU/USD continues to be neutral but in the short-term moving in a higher range, between $,1950 and $1,965. While technical indicators ahead are modestly biased to the upside, the price needs to consolidate above $1,960 in order to signal more strength ahead. A close above $1,975 would point to further gains and probably to another test of $2,000. The immediate support stands at $1,950 and below at $1,940. Weakness is seen limited while above $1,900.
Support Levels: $1,935 $1,905 $1,860
Resistance Levels: $1,960 $1,978 $2,015
SILVER
Silver continues to trade sideways but on Monday posted the highest close since September 2. The move higher was boosted by a weaker U.S. dollar in the market and also by risk appetite. The DXY fell 0.25% ahead of the FOMC statement and economic projections to be released on Wednesday. The better mood among investors helped silver but the move higher was not strong enough to leave behind the neutral scenario that prevails among metals in the short-term.
From a technical perspective, the close above the 20-day moving average in XAG/USD could anticipate more gains. The immediate resistance is the $27.50 area and a break higher should bring more confidence to the bullish scenario. A retreat under $27.00 would remove the bullish tone, favouring more consolidation ahead. A daily close under $26.50 would likely trigger more losses and a test of the September lows.
Support Levels: $26.90 $26.00 $24.50
Resistance Levels: $27.50 $28.30 $29.15
CRUDE WTI
Oil prices moved slightly lower on Monday, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate hovering around the $37.00 level a barrel. Lingering concerns about the global economic slowdown and the subsequent dwindling demand for crude and news that Libya prepares to resume production weighed on prices. The OPEC downgraded its demand forecast on Monday. The oil cartel said that they expect global oil demand to fall by 9.46 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. Meanwhile, oil prices failed to benefit from better risk sentiment, a weaker US dollar and expectations of disruptions in US production due to the tropical storm Sally, which is gaining strength in the Gulf of Mexico.
Still, WTI managed to hold last week's range and was down 0.26% at $37.20 a barrel, having touched a low of $36.85/bbl. The benchmark recorded a 5.4% weekly loss, falling for a second week in a row. The short-term technical perspective remains slightly negative, according to 4-hour charts, although WTI seems to be going through a consolidation phase following last week's slump. A break below the $36.10 zone could trigger a new leg lower, with mid-June lows (at the $34.50 area) in sight. On the other hand, a recovery past $38.50 could favor a steeper bounce. The 200-day SMA at the 40.50 zone would become the key resistance level to overcome over the next days.
Support Levels: $36.10 $35.40 $34.50
Resistance Levels: $37.60 $38.50 $39.50
DOW JONES
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index advanced on Monday, attempting a bounce after two weeks of losses, buoyed by renewed hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine after AstraZeneca resumed trials. Corporate merger news also boosted shares, including reports that Oracle may be forming a partnership with TikTok. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 327 points, or 1.18%, to close at 27,993, having hit a session high of 28,082. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gained 42 points, or 1.27%, to 3,383. The Nasdaq Composite rose 203 points, or 1.87%, to 11,056. Financial sector, energy and real estate companies led gains.
From a technical view, the short-term bias has turned slightly positive according to 4-hour indicators, although the 20-day SMA stands as immediate resistance around 28,100, closely followed by last week’s high at the 28,200 area. A breakout of this latter could pave the way toward early-September highs around 29,200. On the flip side, the first significant support is seen at the 27,400 area, which if broken, could expose the 27,000 level.
Support Levels: 27,400 27,000 26,600
Resistance Levels: 28,200 28,750 29,200
MACROECONOMIC EVENTS
* All the Moving Average support and resistance levels are dynamic by nature. Means when the price approaches the Moving averages, slight variation occurs in the forecasted Moving Average support and resistance levels. Previous few days’ intraday levels are also signicant while trading the current day as the price tend to hover around these levels for some time. Levels in red indicate strong, critical or vital.
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