Global equity market:
(Source: KVB PRIME)
Equity market:
On Friday, the Nazdaq fell 1.13% and closed at 1139.39, which is the weather vane for US technology and emerging industries. While the Dow opened slightly lower, then rose 0.17% to 27433.48. The S&P 500 index rose 0.06% to 3351.28.
The major European stock indexes closed up slightly last Friday. The German DAX index closed up by 0.66% at 12674.88, and the British Fuji Index closed up by 0.09% at 6032.18.
Last Friday, the three major A-share stock indexes collectively opened lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 2%, the ChiNext Index fell more than 3%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.55%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.29%. Semiconductors, brokerages, insurance, healthcare, coal, and pharmaceuticals have the biggest decline, while military industry, Hainan Free Trade, hotels, restaurants, and tourism were strong which was against the market trend.
Precious metal forward contracts:
Last week, gold rose and fell back as we expected. After hitting the highest level of $2074.77, it then fell all the way. Spot gold fell sharply during the US market, which fell below the $2020 mark and then recovered above $2030. Gold closed down by 1.39% at $2034.90 per ounce;
Spot silver fell 2.19% to $28.27 per ounce.
Crude oil forward contracts:
Last Friday, international oil prices fell as a whole, WTI crude oil station was above 41, and US oil prices rebounded. As of the close, WTI crude oil fell 0.97% to $41.53 per barrel;
Brent crude oil fell 1.02% to $44.64 per barrel.
Currency forward contracts:
USDX: closed up by 93.44 -0.18%.
EUR/USD: closed down by 1.17845 0.782%
GBP/USD: closed down by 1.30532 0.675%
AUD/USD: closed down by 0.71575 1.077%
NZD/USD: closed down by 0.65976 1.350%
USD/CAD: closed up by 1.33859 -0.591%
USD/JPY: closed up by 105.946 -0.411%
Global fundamentals:
United States:
Over the weekend, Trump signed an executive order to extend some of the expired relief measures for COVID-19. The new measures include requiring additional unemployment assistance of $400 a week for the unemployed people, deferring payroll taxes for those with an annual income of less than $100,000, deferring eviction measures to protect tenants, and reducing student loan.
The number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in July was 1.763 million, higher than the expectation of 1.6 million. The unemployment rate in July was 10.2%, lower than the expected 10.5%, and 11.1% of the previous value, which was the fourth month of decline.
Based on the current lack of progress in stimulus negotiations, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that he is willing to listen to any anti-epidemic relief proposals made by the Democratic Party and urged the Democratic Party to pass a bill agreed upon by both parties.
United Kingdom:
Japan and Britain are striving to reach a trade agreement by the end of this month, and Britain will abolish tariffs on Japanese cars by 2026. The tariff agreement is consistent with the existing auto tariff agreement between Japan and the European Union.
Canada:
Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland held a press conference in Toronto at noon on the 7th local time to announce that if the United States begins to impose a 10% tariff on Canadian aluminium products on August 16, Canada will completely impose a total of 3.6 billion Canadian dollars tariff on products exported from America.
Crude:
Due to COVID-19 there was a sharp decline in fuel prices and demand, the world’s five largest oil companies (Exxon Mobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, Total) in the second quarter slashed their asset values by nearly $50 billion in total and cut the production. In the second quarter of this year, Saudi Aramco's profit plummeted 73%.
Today's currency forecast analysis:
EUR/USD
The profit position of 1.19 last week was closed shortly after the opening of Europe. Afterwards, the non-agricultural data is higher than the previous value, but it is uncertain and optimistic. However, the short position of USD has been too large recently and some of them have escaped and released one side pressure. Although the price is currently suppressed by both of the moving averages and layout in short positions, we don’t recommend to participate. Keep watching: it's better to wait for the price to callback to the average from last week before making judgments.
(Source: KVB PRIME)
GBP/USD
The price broke through 1.309 as we expected, and then continued to break below 70 pips. In terms of fundamentals, the USD does not think it has begun to strengthen. Therefore, the current serious decline is different from EUR and can have more evidence to participate. Callback: support and resistance swap is 1.309. Although both of the moving averages are currently suppressing the price, we should wait for the end of the callback, and due to the weakness of USD, the idea of bulls still prevails.
(Source: KVB PRIME)
USD/JPY
There was a wave of counterattacks in USD assets on Friday. The price is currently supported by both of the moving averages, but it does not affect our strategy of holding short positions: the overall stimulus plan has made no progress, the government issues relief funds and short-term interest-free loans, which don’t support the strong USD. The advancement of auto import taxes in Europe and Japan also supports the relatively strong JPY. Therefore, the overall strategy will not be adjusted at the current stage: it can still be expected near 105.068.
(Source: KVB PRIME)
XAU/USD
Gold is exactly the same as our forecast: Although non-agricultural data is better than expected, the data still shows overall economic fatigue. Trump's decree signed over the weekend and the current stimulus plan that has not progressed have been repeatedly verified this point. However, gold does not follow the pursuit of risk resistance in the market. The bulls have started the ‘Great Escape’ before the non-agricultural announcement in 2073. Technically, the price has returned to around 2030. Although supported by FIBO and moving averages, the USD will still remain weak, so in the short-term we can see that there is a callback space of $5-10, which can participate under strict risk control, but we do not think that the ‘Great Escape’ is over.
(Source: KVB PRIME)
إخلاء المسؤولية: الآراء الواردة هنا تعبر فقط عن رأي الكاتب، ولا تمثل الموقف الرسمي لـ Followme. لا تتحمل Followme مسؤولية دقة أو اكتمال أو موثوقية المعلومات المُقدمة، ولا تتحمل مسؤولية أي إجراءات تُتخذ بناءً على المحتوى، ما لم يُنص على ذلك صراحةً كتابيًا.
اترك رسالتك الآن