1. The recent sustained decline in the US dollar index accelerated this week. On Tuesday, the New York session fell to 95.04, the lowest level in nearly four and a half months since the beginning of March. The accumulation of multiple unfavourable US dollar factors caused foreign exchange investors to flee in panic. Correspondingly, the US dollar’s counterparty assets generally strengthened;
2. For one thing, the benefits of vaccine research and development drive investors to sell safe-haven US dollars, besides, US President Trump finally issued the toughest epidemic prevention order so far overnight, and the market is also worried that the second blockade of the US economy may bring additional shocks. In addition, the U.S. election will enter the final 100-day countdown this week, and market concerns about the uncertainty of the election have also prompted investors to sell their US dollar long positions.
3. Earlier, the EU reached a joint fiscal bailout agreement that also promoted the strength of the dollar’s biggest rival, the Euro, and further pushed the dollar index to weaken. At the same time, the market bet that its easing force will remain the same next week based on the previous remarks of Fed officials. The size of the US government’s fiscal deficit has also reached a historical record. Such a situation makes the outlook for the valuation of the U.S. dollar look bad. The market outlook is expected to continue to be under pressure. Once it falls below the 95 psychological barriers, the exchange rate will look down at the March low of 94.63, and further downward targets will be thereafter. At the beginning of 2018, the outsole 90.50-91.00 interval.
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