Can EURCHF form a next up swing?

Here is my analysis of EURCHF!

1. The pair destroyed the down trendline from drawing 2 Dec 19.

2. The first up swing already showed up and now it retrace back and sit near 0.618 of fibonacci level. 

3. EUR is the biggest share in Dollar Index Basket and the Fed just call it rate cut yesterday but ECB havn’t provide any sign yet. So to make DXY go down, EUR must be strong comparing to another currency in the basket. 

I could be right or wrong with the analysis but open the Buy position here then put SL just below 61.8 and aim for target at recent high or above seems to produce an attractive RRR.