黄金或延续此前回落格局警惕跌幅扩大

28 May 2016, 09:30 · Views 206

　　■ 理财看台

　　□明富金融研究所谢堃

　　本周美国经济数据喜忧参半，其中美国加息1-2次是适当的，因为当前的实际增长率、通胀水平都低于美联储的预期。总体而言，我们认为6月加息的可能性不大，但是市场开始期待6月会议给出明确的加息指引，从联邦利率黄金将持续受强势美元打压维持高位回落格局。

　　金银ETF和CFTC有阶段性流出迹象，暗示或延续此前回落格局。上周黄金ETF-SPDR增加18.13吨，总持有量至869.26吨，黄金期货投机性净多头增加1390手合约，至266288手合约；{const delay=300,win=window,dataLayer=win.dataLayer=Array.isArray(win.dataLayer)?win.dataLayer:[],originalPush=dataLayer.push,isEvent=(obj)=>obj&&typeof obj==='object'&&typeof obj.event==='string',blocked=new Set(['gtm.click','gtm.click-v2','gtm.linkClick','gtm.formSubmit','gtm.video','gtm.scrollDepth','gtm.timer']);dataLayer.push=function(...args){if(args.some(arg=>isEvent(arg)&&arg.event.startsWith("gtm.history"))){for(let i=dataLayer.length-1;i>=0;--i){const item=dataLayer[i];if(isEvent(item)&&blocked.has(item.event))dataLayer.splice(i,1)}}return originalPush.apply(this,args)};await new Promise(s=>setTimeout(s,delay));dataLayer.push({'gtm.start':+new Date(),event:'gtm.js'});document.body.appendChild(Object.assign(document.createElement('script'),{async:true,src:'https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id=GTM-NQRVNZ5'}))},{once:true}); window.__GEN_APP_STATE__ = 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理财看台　　□明富金融研究所谢堃　　本周金价下跌，一方","cover":"","keyword":"Followme白银,加息,议息,美国,回落,持仓","createTime":1464399011000,"createTimeDesc":0,"operateTime":0,"entityStatus":2,"area":"cn","contentType":200,"topics":[],"userBaseInfo":{"userId":2444,"nickName":"zhengb","avatarUrl":"https:\u002F\u002Fsocialstatic.fmpstatic.com\u002Favatar\u002Favatar-2444-2018-03-19-14-08-19-238293.png","tagList":[],"homePageSchema":"\u002Fu\u002F2444"},"blogStatistics":{"readCount":206,"likeCount":0,"commentCount":0,"shareCount":0,"favoriteCount":0,"topicCount":0,"heat":5.103,"hot":-18965.6983310185,"participantCount":0,"vaildReadCount":0,"exposeCount":0,"hotCommentIds":"","rewardUserCount":0,"rewardCount":0,"reportCount":0,"rewardAmount":0},"openMode":1,"originType":"1","originalSite":"","originalUrl":"","originalAuthor":"","displayLevel":50,"auditStatus":1,"slug":"20057183","hotCommentInfo":[],"blogInfoSchema":"\u002Fc\u002F20057183","userBlogAction":{"userId":2444,"objectId":20057183,"isLiked":false,"isCommented":false},"id":20057183,"title":"黄金或延续此前回落格局警惕跌幅扩大","body":"\u003Cdiv 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target=\"_blank\"\u003E加息\u003C\u002Fa\u003E1-2次是适当的，因为当前的实际增长率、通胀水平都低于美联储的预期。总体而言，我们认为6月加息的可能性不大，但是市场开始期待6月会议给出明确的加息指引，从联邦利率\u003Ca href='#\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E期货\u003C\u002Fa\u003E市场数据可以看到，市场开始押注9月加息。而一些大的国外投行认为，美联储将于7月或9月开始加息。在此背景下，\u003Ca href='#\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E黄金\u003C\u002Fa\u003E将持续受强势美元打压维持高位回落格局。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E　　金银ETF和CFTC有阶段性流出迹象，暗示或延续此前回落格局。上周黄金ETF-SPDR增加18.13吨，总持有量至869.26吨，\u003Ca href='#\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E白银\u003C\u002Fa\u003EETF-SLV减少29.58吨至10451.53吨。金银ETF持仓变动出现分化，白银ETF持续减仓，显示白银市场多头有出货迹象，短线或维持回落格局。CFTC持仓报告显示，5月17日当周\u003Ca href='#\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E黄金期货\u003C\u002Fa\u003E投机性净多头增加1390手合约，至266288手合约；\u003Ca href='#\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E白银期货\u003C\u002Fa\u003E投机性净多头减少3069手合约，至77202手合约。从CFTC持仓看，金银的CFTC持仓已经达到相对高点，后期基金净多头有非常强的回补意愿，黄金和白银短期或维持回落格局。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E　　明富金融研究所认为，随着美联储6月议息会议的临近，金价对美国经济数据和美联储官员讲话愈发敏感，短期加息概率的上升会导致金价下行。但从中长期来看，美联储再次加息仍是全球经济的定时炸弹，加息落地将再次推升全球避险情绪；同时全球经济陷入衰退，各国货币竞相宽松的背景将决定金价中长期处于上升趋势。技术上看，黄金跌破上行趋势线，短期调整压力明显，建议投资者逢高卖空为主。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\r\n\u003Cp\u003E　　明富金融研究所认为，本周白银价格震荡回落，短线下行趋势维持良好，市场逢高卖盘力量正在积累。日线图短期均线拐头向下，短期整体趋势偏空，后市可能继续走弱。日线图MACD指标看，快慢线零轴上方死叉且向下发散，绿色能量柱维持高位，白银技术压制明显。整体来看，白银短线下行趋势已经确立，多技术指标上方压制明显，投资者可把握逢高卖空策略。\u003C\u002Fp\u003E\r\n\u003Cspan id=\"arctTailMark\"\u003E\u003C\u002Fspan\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003Cdiv style=\"text-align:right;font-size:12px\"\u003E（责任编辑：柳苏源 HN091）\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E\r\n\r\n\u003C\u002Fdiv\u003E","files":[],"labels":[]},"ListType":"common"}],"totalCount":1}},"finish":false},"brandActivityTime":{"params":{"blogId":20057183},"_customData":{},"dataParams":{"blogId":""},"response":{"code":0,"message":"Success 0 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